Microsoft Surface Event: It's Do or Die for Windows RT

This much we know about Microsoft's "small" Surface event happening Tuesday in New York City: It will mark the launch of the long-awaited Surface Mini. The Mini will be Microsoft's official entry into the small-screen tablet market, currently dominated by the likes of the Apple iPad mini and Amazon's Kindle Fire.

What we don't know is exactly how Microsoft is going to present its pint-size Surface to the world. The path Microsoft lays out for the Surface Mini will show just how much confidence the company has in Windows RT, the version of Windows tailor-made for tablets but one that so far hasn't found much love from PC manufacturers.
If there was ever a product where running Windows RT made the most sense, it's a small-screen tablet. Windows RT, after all, is the flavor of Windows that tastes best on tablets powered by ARM chips, putting touch-first apps from the Windows Store front and center. Although it has a desktop, it's really only there to run Office, since apps made for Windows 7 (and earlier versions) won't run on Windows RT devices.

Smaller problems

Here's the problem, though: Windows RT has been more or less rejected by the buying public. Virtually every manufacturer who launched an RT-based tablet has pulled back, favoring instead the Windows tablets powered by Intel chips, which can run older full-blown Windows 8 and Windows apps. The only exception is Nokia, which is now a division of Microsoft.

Sure, there were reports during the 2013 holiday season that the Surface was selling well (finally), but Microsoft doesn't break out sales of the Surface (ARM-powered) vs. the Surface Pro (Intel-powered). So even if those reports are true, it's unclear if it's good news for Windows RT.

In all likelihood, Microsoft will stick with Windows RT for its small tablet, which will probably have an 8-inch screen so it can directly compete with the 7.9-inch iPad mini. Windows RT may not be doing well, but to opt for an Intel-powered Surface Mini would essentially tell people not to bother buying a Surface 2, Windows RT's current poster child.

The same goes for a double product launch — that is, if Microsoft were to launch both an ARM- and an Intel-powered Surface Mini. While that's exactly the strategy for the big-screen Surface, it doesn't translate to the small-screen model.

For 10-inch tablets, the ARM/Intel choice is one of power vs. portability: If you care mainly about running apps like Netflix and Facebook and want something easy to carry around, the Surface 2 is for you. If you want serious desktop power in something that's portable in a pinch, you want the Surface Pro.

At 8 inches, the lines aren't as clear. If Microsoft goes with Intel, it could certainly opt for an Atom chip for an 8-inch Surface (a Core processor would make it too thick and necessitate a cooling fan), but that's not desktop power. Plus the ARM and Intel Surface Minis would be equally portable — PC manufacturers have achieved some impressively small and thin Atom-powered tablets — so there goes that differentiator. An ARM-based Mini might get slightly better battery life than an Intel one, but today's Atom chips perform well in that department, too.